Washington All-Time Playoff Teams — Adjusted Winning Percentage [UPDATED] Comments

UPDATE:  My apologies, there were a few errors in the first posting.  It was pointed out to me that Skyline began in 1997, not 1998, and that several “new” schools did improperly calculated.  That is, I didn’t have a proper first-year for them.  The big change means that Archbishop Murphy and Skyline are now virtually tied.  It also brought Tacoma Baptist into the top 25.  I’ve also included the first year in parentheses for teams that started after 1973.  Please let me know if there’s any other errors.  I must also credit Dave “Stat King” Maley for his work on school history.

UPDATE 2: A reader noticed another bug, although not impactful as the first, relating to schools with a first-year prior to 1973 but not the default of 1900.  But it does bring up Tumwater and Lakes, as one would expect.

One of the first things I did with this site, back in early 2004, was an database of teams’ all-time playoff performances, based on data from the WIAA.  A few years later, the WIAA stopped updating the data in an easy-to-digest format, and I stopped updating my database.

I decided to take another look this week and succeeded in pulling a fresh dataset, current through the 2010 playoffs.  The WIAA site can be found here.  The data is only for Washington teams.  If someone knows where to find similar information for Oregon, please let me know with a comment.

Soon, I will update the live database front-end with searches and ranking across a half-dozen fixed data points and another half-dozen derived points, such as Average Margin of Victory, Points Per Game, etc.  Until then, I’m posting a few charts, the first of which is below the jump.

Adjusted Winning Percentage

When I first ranked teams on winning percentage, this is playoff winning percentage, a few teams jumped to the top that had gone perhaps 3-1 in one playoff appearance, never to appear again.  Thus this top 25 set is ranked by Adjusted Winning Percentage, which is the raw winning percentage multiplied by adjusted playoff appearance rate. What is “adjusted playoff appearance rate?”  Washington has had a football playoff system since 1973, thus the raw appearance percentage is Appearances divided by 38.  However, not all teams have been around that long.  Thus adjusted playoff appearance rate is based on 38 (number of years of the tournament), OR the number of years the school has fielded a team.

The Top 25 is below, and the whole 1-to-300 some odd is here.

 

Rank Team Wins Losses Win % Adj. Win % App./Opp.
1 Archbishop Murphy (2000) 21 6 77.8% 56.6% 8 / 11
2 Skyline (1997) 29 4 87.9% 56.5% 9 / 14
3 Cascade Christian (1998) 16 8 66.7% 46.2% 9 / 13
4 DeSales 41 20 67.2% 44.2% 25 / 38
5 O’Dea 37 24 60.7% 43.1% 27 / 38
6 Lynden 42 17 71.2% 41.2% 22 / 38
7 Prosser 39 19 67.2% 40.7% 23 / 38
8 Bellevue 40 9 81.6% 38.7% 18 / 38
9 Tumwater 35 16 68.6% 37.9% 21 / 38
10 Royal 33 16 67.3% 37.2% 21 / 38
11 Willapa Valley 26 22 54.2% 37.1% 26 / 38
12 Cashmere 29 22 56.9% 35.9% 24 / 38
13 Union (2007) 5 2 71.4% 35.7% 2 / 4
14 Tacoma Baptist (1991) 14 14 50.0% 35.0% 14 / 20
15 South Kitsap 27 24 52.9% 34.8% 25 / 38
16 Montesano 26 20 56.5% 32.7% 22 / 38
17 Reardan 25 16 61.0% 32.1% 20 / 38
18 Connell 27 18 60.0% 31.6% 20 / 38
19 Kentwood 29 17 63.0% 31.5% 19 / 38
20 Meridian 29 15 65.9% 31.2% 18 / 38
21 Almira-Coulee-Hartline (1987) 14 9 60.9% 30.4% 12 / 24
22 Lind-Ritzville 27 21 56.3% 29.6% 20 / 38
23 Othello 23 18 56.1% 29.5% 20 / 38
24 Capital 26 16 61.9% 29.3% 18 / 38
25 Lakes 23 19 54.8% 28.8% 20 / 38

Adjusting winning percentage this way includes “new” schools, like Archbishop Murphy, Skyline and Union, in the top 25 on an equal basis with long-timers like DeSales, Lynden and O’Dea.

Questions or methodology feedback?  Leave a comment below.

More charts to come.


Comments

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